Monday, December 26, 2016

Heroes of the Resistance isn't the slam-dunk best first expansion

When new players ask what Rebel expansions they should buy first on Reddit, someone will inevitably suggest Heroes of the Resistance. There's few ways to go wrong with a first expansion, and Heroes of the Resistance is definitely OK. As a two-ship combo, it's $5-$10 cheaper than buying the Millennium Falcon and another small ship separately. It's also a great expansion for fans of The Force Awakens.

However, Heroes of the Resistance isn't the slam-dunk best first purchase many people think it is. When I wrote the Beginner's Guide to Budget Lists Without Proxies, I expected Heroes of the Resistance to feature prominently in Rebel lists. Two lists ended up using pilots from Heroes of the Resistance. In comparison, four Imperial lists featured ships from Imperial Veterans. No list used both the T-70 and the YT-1300 from Heroes of the Resistance.

Why did that happen? Well, I ran into two problems. First, the expansion comes with a lot of niche pilots. Rey, Poe Dameron, Nien Nunb, and Jess Pava (<3) are all good. However, the new Han Solo and Chewbacca are both overshadowed by their original counterparts. HotR Han Solo has a gimmicky ability, and new players especially will get more use from the original Han Solo. HotR Chewbacca has awful synergy with the mandatory Gunner, and needs a larger collection of small ships to get the most out of his ability. There's a strong set of X-Wing pilots, but starting with Heroes of the Resistance almost commits you to flying a two-ship list with the Falcon and a small ship. New players would get a similar experience using the Poe Dameron which comes with the Blue Core Set and possibly buying a different small ship expansion for variety.

Second, the strong Heroes of the Resistance pilots require a lot of upgrades from other expansions to work. Gunner effects are almost mandatory on the YT-1300, and those come in other big ship expansions. Rey can use Finn instead of Gunner, but she needs Kanan Jarrus crew (from the Ghost) to consistently get opponents in arc. On the X-Wing side, they often need elite pilot talent and astromech upgrades from various other expansions to get their value. Even the generic T-70 pilots want cheap astromechs from other expansions.

In comparison, the original Millennium Falcon expansion gives players the same experience and comes with everything the ship needs. You can run Han Solo with Veteran Instincts, Luke Skywalker crew, the original Millennium Falcon title, and Engine Upgrade just from the expansion alone. You're missing C-3PO or Hotshot Co-Pilot, but this build gets enough value out of the investment. Pair it with Miranda in her K-Wing with the Twin Laser Turret upgrade and you have the cheapest strong budget list along with some of the most important upgrades to expand from.

Heroes of the Resistance gets better for those willing to proxy upgrade cards. Rey Poe can compete against most squads. On the other hand, this Chewie Poe list gets you a similar experience for $10 less (assuming you have the Blue Core set), and there are tons of other non-Falcon options once you can proxy cards.

Buying Heroes of the Resistance shouldn't give you buyer's remorse (unless X-Wing wasn't the game for you). It's a great expansion for your collection! For new Rebel players looking for the best bang for their buck, the Millennium Falcon is the best bet for a turreted ship, and Rebel Aces is the best bet non-turreted ships.

Sunday, December 18, 2016

[List] The Other Hero of the Resistance (3XZ)

The spoilers for the Heroes of the Resistance expansion kicked up a lot of excitement. Rey, PS9 Poe, and Nien Nunb were the early stars. The new Han Solo and Snap Wexley cards had people mulling over the possibilities. Many were even excited by the generic YT-1300 pilot.

My favorite pilot of the set flew under the radar. My first love in X-Wing is 4-ship Rebels: a no-frills ace that won't break the bank, two efficient damage-dealers, and a cheap blocker. I'm especially fond of ~24-point ships with a better attack than 3 dice with focus, like B-Wings with Fire-Control System or Y-Wings with Twin Laser Turret. So, my favorite pilot of the set wasn't Rey. It wasn't PS9 Poe and it wasn't Nien Nunb. It wasn't Han Solo or Snap Wexley or the Resistance Sympathizer.

It was Jess Pava.



(I'm sorry, Chewbacca.)

Jess's ability is like target lock. She gets focus and target lock every turn while flying near her friends, and doesn't have to deal with not having target lock when switching targets or in the first round of combat. Even better, she gets to reroll dice on defense. At 25 points before upgrades, she can (barely) fit into a 4-ship Rebels squad as an efficient damage dealer.

But Jess has a big problem. Running her makes target selection for your opponent really easy. Leave Jess for last, and she loses her slick princess magic and turns into a scruffy Blue Squadron Novice with a pumpkin. She might never even get the chance to show off her fancy evasive maneuvers and reroll a green die.

To get the most out of Jess, you need a build and a list which convinces your opponent to shoot Jess first. Pairing Jess with a B-Wing or Y-Wing isn't ideal because your opponent will just kill them first. You especially don't want to run her with Biggs! (Bad, FFG preview! Bad!) You want Jess to be your Biggs.

So, I gave Jess R3-A2, the most threatening droid in the game. The stressbot single-handedly shuts down some pilots and greatly inconveniences others. It's not great for Jess since it stops her from turning around and forces her to do predictable greens, but it'll usually be just as annoying for your opponent. The stressbot paints a big target on Jess's back.

I needed a second ~25-point ship with a strong attack who opponents won't want to shoot. After seeing it on Reddit, I chose another new Heroes of the Resistance build: Tarn Mison with M9-G8. Tarn gets a free target lock on any ship which shoots him. If the opponent decides to go after Tarn first, he'll have to reroll an attack die on each ship, then Tarn gets to shoot back with the target lock. In the meantime, he'll have a target lock on a friendly ship to boost their attack.

These ships are more expensive than the usual 24- to 26-point Y-Wings and B-Wings that go in 4-ship Rebel builds. Unfortunately, there was only enough points left for a Z-95 and a 35-point Poe Dameron without Autothrusters. You can either go with Adaptability + R2-D2 or Veteran Instincts + R5-P9 on Poe. I like the higher pilot skill and the option to use white maneuvers, so I went with R5-P9. With the increasing popularity of Hotshot Co-Pilot, R2-D2 might be the better choice.

That gets us to the list:

3XZ
  • (35pts) T-70 X-Wing, Poe Dameron (PS 8): Veteran Instincts, R5-P9, Integrated Astromech
  • (27pts) T-70 X-Wing, Jess Pava: R3-A2, Integrated Astromech
  • (26pts) X-Wing, Tarn Mison: M9-G8, Integrated Astromech
  • (12pts) Z-95, Bandit Squadron Pilot

I think this list is cool not just because it has 4 ships and has good action efficiency, but also because it makes it really hard for your opponent to choose the right target. You don't want to shoot Poe first because he'll just run away and regen. You don't want to shoot Jess first because she's tankier with rerolls on defense. You don't want to shoot Tarn first because he'll make you reroll your hits and you'll give him a free target lock to shoot you back with. You don't want to shoot the Z-95 first for obvious reasons. Meanwhile, Jess keeps shooting and stressing your ships, Tarn keeps buffing Poe, and the Z-95 blocks and adds the occasional damage. The M9-G8 Poe synergy is amazing,  almost doubling the chances of 3 hits without spending focus.

I think this list is reasonably strong. I've beaten Dengaroo with it (kill Manaroo first). It has trouble with TIE Defenders and it doesn't like Hotshot Co-Pilot. If I had to take this to Regionals today, I'd swap Miranda with Twin Laser Turret for Poe. If you take this to a tournament, let me know how it goes!

Something I hope you take away from this is you don't have to invent everything to build creative lists. This is the most interesting list I've built so far; maybe it'll be the most interesting list I'll ever build. And yet, I only came up with one ship on my own. I saw the Tarn Mison build on Reddit, Poe's build is standard at its price point, and the generic Z-95 has been used a million times. I even took the structure of this list from an existing archetype. It's much easier to build cool and strong lists if you can draw on a library of ship builds and archetype templates which are known to be effective. (Want to build this library for yourself? Look up top lists at tournaments and see what ships/squads show up.) The magic can come from putting the ships together in just the right combination with just the right tweak in upgrades.

Sunday, December 11, 2016

Beginner's Guide to Deploying Tight Formations

If you're flying low-pilot skill ships with limited maneuverability or a swarm of cheap ships, you'll usually want to deploy your ships in a tight formation. Flying ships in a tight formation isn't too hard and is often easier than flying them individually, but it does require knowing a few tricks to avoid bumping into yourself.

There are many resources on deployment, maneuvering, and flying in formation, including these:

They're great resources, but I want to give you some easy-to-remember deployments to get you flying in formation quickly. I'll also discuss some general deployment principles below.

If you just want one formation to get you started, Formation 1 is what I use most often.

Formations

Measurement

I'll use distances based on the straight templates. Distance 1 means the length of the 1-straight maneuver template, distance 2 means the length of the 2-straight maneuver template, and so on. Distance 1/2 is the width of any straight maneuver template. Small ship bases are 1 by 1 and large ship bases are 2 by 2 (not counting nubs).

If I refer to ship bases, it's distance 1 for small ships and distance 2 for large ships.



Formation 1: deploy your ships in a grid half of the ship-base apart.

If you only want to remember one formation, this is it. This lets you perform the same maneuver on all of your ships without bumping.



This works for both small- and large-base ships. For small ships, you need to deploy them distance 1/2 away from each other. Use the width of the straight maneuver templates to space your ships out. For large ships, you need to deploy them distance 1 away from each other.

When playing with the physical miniatures instead of online, your ships will get nudged and the maneuver templates are slightly imprecise. Over time, it can take your ships out of formation and cause bumps. The large ships should be fine, but the small ships can be quite sensitive to this. You can't space out the small ships more vertically since the deployment zone is 2.5 small ship-bases in width, but you can slightly shift the alignment of the front or back row to give the corners more space on the banks.

You can use this principle with as few as two small ships. For three ships, some players like to deploy them in a line while others like to deploy one ship behind another. For four ships, some players like to form a block while others like to make a Tetris "T" or "L" shape. You can experiment with the different shapes as long as you space your small ships distance 1/2 apart.

If you have both small ships and large ships, deploying them distance 1 apart will let you perform the same maneuver without bumping. However, this usually isn't the best option since the small ships move slower than large ships when performing the same speed maneuver. You'll usually want to deploy the ships distance 1/2 apart and perform maneuvers 1-speed faster with the small ships (see Formation 3).


Formation 2: With small ships, align the outside of the nub on one ship with the opposite edge on the front/back ship.

This formation also lets you perform the same maneuver on all of your ships without bumping.


Be generous when lining up the outside of the nub with the edge. If you line up the edge against the nub, your back ships can run into your front ships when doing a straight maneuver after a bank maneuver. You may want to add a bit more space between ships and between the nub and ship edge when playing with the physical miniatures to account for any nudges or imprecise maneuvers.

This formation is useful when you want a vertically-compact formation for small ships at the cost of being more spread-out horizontally. If you deploy in the corner, the sixth ship will run into asteroids placed at range 2 from the board edge.

The pinwheel formation is a slightly tighter variation of this. Line up the back ship's nub against the opposite nub of the front ship:




Formation 3: In mixed small/large ship squads, deploy your ships distance 1/2 apart. Your small ships must be against the front or back edge of the deployment zone.

Your small ships must perform maneuvers 1 speed faster than your large ships to avoid bumping.



Again, you may want to slightly offset the small ships to give yourself more tolerance for nudges and imprecise maneuvers when playing with physical miniatures.

Since large ships move faster, you generally perform maneuvers 1 speed faster with small ships to keep up. This formation lets you do just that while keeping your ships in formation and is tighter than spacing your ships distance 1 apart.

If you want to perform the same speed maneuver with your small and large ships, they need to be deployed distance 1 apart.


Formation 4: Deploy one large ship on front edge of deployment zone facing forward. Deploy another ship on back edge of deployment zone distance 1 away facing the first ship.

If both are big ships, your first maneuver will be a 3-straight with the forward ship and a 2-hard turn with the back ship. This formation lets you fly one ship behind the other and do the same maneuver on both ships without bumping.

   

You can use Formation 1 and deploy two large ships distance 1 apart facing the same direction, but that takes up a lot of room horizontally. You might have trouble navigating past asteroids between your ships, and the inside ship may have to turn toward the board edge to engage enemy ships. This formation saves space horizontally and puts both of your ships near the board edge. The back ship will almost always be 1 range farther, which can be good or bad depending on your list and the target.


If the back ship is a small ship, your first maneuver will be a 2-straight with the big ship and a 3-turn with the small ship.

   

It tucks the small ship behind the big ship and is often used if you have Tactical Jammers on the big ship. If you want to keep this formation, have the small ship perform maneuvers 1-speed faster than the big ship.

As a variation, you can deploy the forward-facing ship touching the side-facing ship instead of distance 1 apart. If you do this with the side-facing ship facing the board edge, make sure your side-facing ship is at least distance 3 away from the board edge so its turn will fit.



General Deployment Principles

Why not deploy ships right next to each other?

Imagine deploying your ships side by side. They each take up 1 ship base in width. After a bank, they've turned 45 degrees. As we learned in high school, the diagonal is ~1.4x the ship's width so your ships won't fit. (You also won't be able to do hard turns because there won't be room for the nubs.)

There may be cases where you'd want to deploy ships right next to each other, but it'll be harder to fly them close together without bumping.


Why deploy your ships in a tight formation?

Focusing your fire on one enemy ship is very important in this game. It reduces the damage you take by killing enemy ships faster, and it's often the only reliable way to push damage through on tokened-up evasive ships. If you spread your ships out, there's a risk your opponent will rush down an isolated ship before your other ships can help it. It's also easier to fly your ships in formation as one "super-large" ship rather than fly your ships independently.

That said, there are reasons why you'd spread your ships out. For example, suppose you have a high-pilot skill ace with your group of jousting ships. If your ace deploys last and your jousters are deployed opposite to your opponent, you can deploy your ace in a flanking position to make it harder for your opponent to focus it down. This is especially true if your ace relies on avoiding enemy firing arcs; these ships don't want to be too close to your other ships. You may also have to spread your ships out if your game plan relies on killing one specific enemy ship first.

Keep in mind these formations are for deployment and pre-engagement moves. You may want to split ships off to block in the initial engagement, and your formation will inevitably break apart after the first turn or two of engagement.


Why deploy in the corner?

You usually want to deploy in the corner for two reasons. First, it limits the directions your opponent can attack you from. You'll be able to cover most flanking options by either banking or hard turning. Second, it limits your opponent's options after the initial engagement. Suppose you deployed in the corner while your opponent deployed in the center. After your opponent's ships turn to face yours, they'll be facing the board edge and many not be able to safely K-Turn.

There are cases where you'd want to deploy near the middle of the board. The flanking ships mentioned above will usually go near the middle of the board. In general, deploying highly-maneuverable aces gives them more room to play with, although you'll still often see them deployed in a corner.

You'll usually want to deploy in the middle if you have to deploy first and your opponent's squad is better at jousting than yours. Deploying in a corner means your opponent can deploy across from you and force a joust away from obstacles, while deploying in the middle brings the obstacles into play. (If you deploy after them, you have the option to deploy in the far corner.)

Lastly, deploying near the middle makes sense if you're playing against a list where you have to kill one ship first, especially if you have to deploy first. Deploying in the middle usually makes it easier to hunt that ship down, while deploying in a corner lets your target hide in or run to the opposite corner.

Deploy your low-pilot skill ships in front and toward the side you'll be turning.

If you put the low-pilot skill ships behind your high-pilot skill ships, you won't be able to do 1-speed maneuvers without bumping your own ships. There are some good reasons to put low-pilot skill ships behind high-pilot skill ships, usually to hide important ships or for the option to bump your own ship to block certain maneuvers. For convenience, you'll normally put your low-pilot skill ships in front and on the side you'll be turning towards.


Closing

These formations and principles are useful to know for your first games flying in a tight formation, and you'll probably use some variation of these in many of your future games. The best deployment will change based on what squad you and your opponent is running and on the obstacle placement. Don't be afraid to experiment with other formations and deployments! It's said that obstacle placement, deployment, and initial maneuvers can be as much as 33% of the skill in X-Wing, so this is a good thing to think about and practice.

The good news is deployment and initial maneuvers are relatively easy to practice. Set up some rocks in common places (e.g. range 2 x range 2, range 3 x range 3, or in the middle of the board) and see what maneuvers you can do while avoiding them. Pretend you're facing a common list and see if you can handle several different deployments (e.g. across from you, in opposite corner) and initial maneuvers (e.g. turn away, go straight, turn towards you, going fast, going slow).

I use VASSAL (X-Wing module here) to practice deployment and initial maneuvers; you can find a tutorial here or on YouTube. You can also use X-Wing Squadron Benchmark. For initial maneuvers, you should understand the Rule of 11 (here called the Rule of 10:16)

Good luck and good flying! Please let me know if you have any other simple and useful formations.

Friday, December 2, 2016

How Good is Kylo Ren Crew?

Wave 10 hasn't released yet, but there's already concern that the new Kylo Ren crew will be too strong on Rear Admiral Chiraneau. Kylo Ren lets you choose which critical damage card an enemy ship takes, although the chosen damage card has to have the Pilot trait. If you roll a critical result when attacking the enemy ship and it's not evaded, you deal the chosen damage card face up even if the enemy ship has shields remaining.



The strength of Kylo Ren depends on the strength of the Pilot critical hits. They include:
  • Blinded Pilot (old and new). The old one causes your next shot to miss, while the new one prevents you from taking your first shot next round. Probably the best all-round Pilot damage card to pull with Kylo Ren.
  • Injured Pilot (old). Removes your pilot ability and Elite Pilot Talent. Can be incredibly strong, "merely" good, or useless.
  • Damaged Cockpit (old and new). Sets your pilot skill to 0. Very strong against high-PS arc-dodgers, not very useful against other ships.
  • Stunned Pilot (old and new). Take damage when bumping. Situational, but can be strong.
  • Shaken Pilot (new). Can't do a straight maneuver next turn. Very situational.

The most powerful use of Kylo Ren is dealing Blinded Pilot cards to prevent a ship from shooting for up to two turns and/or dealing a Damaged Cockpit/Injured Pilot cards to cripple aces. Kylo Ren is also good for sticking damage on Regen ships like Poe, and as a threat against two-hull ships with shields like Corran Horn, Whisper, and the Inquisitor.

On the other hand, upgrade cards that take your action have a high bar to clear. Players often forget the default actions are very strong. Is using Kylo Ren's ability really better than taking Target Lock? After all, killing the enemy ship a round earlier is like preventing a shot with Blinded Pilot while getting an extra shot from your ship. Do the early critical hits make up for the loss in damage output?

Experiment

To answer this question, I run a simple duel between two Rear Admiral Chiraneaus, one with Kylo Ren and one with Ysanne Isard. Both ships have their common build with Gunner, Hotshot Co-Pilot, Veteran Instincts, and Engine Upgrade. I assume combat always happens at Range 2 to make things a bit easier. To be generous, I assume the Kylo Ren Decimator has initiative and shoots first (it technically has the 1-point initiative bid).

This isn't a perfect test. The true measure of a ship's strength is how well they fare against many different 100-point lists, not against a similar ship in a duel. Still, this is a useful way to benchmark Kylo Ren's power, especially because it's strongest against big expensive ships. I'll discuss other factors to consider below. Ysanne Isard costs one extra point, so we'd expect it to be slightly stronger.

I run the numbers for both damage decks. In the first scenario, the Ysanne Isard Decimator brings the new damage deck. Here, Kylo Ren wants to pull two Blinded Pilot (new) cards and a Damaged Cockpit. It takes Target Lock every round afterwards.

In the second scenario, the Ysanne Isard Decimator brings the old damage deck. Blinded Pilot (old) is negated by Gunner, so Kylo Ren only pulls an Injured Pilot critical hit to eliminate Chiraneau's ability and Veteran Instincts. He'll then take Target Lock every round.

Since there's a 31% chance a Decimator will keep its target lock, I let the Kylo Ren Decimator have focus and target lock every third round it takes target lock.

Results

I use the excellent X-Wing Probability Calculator to get these damage numbers. Please note the Round 5 end HP numbers are repeated after the line break.


The ships are pretty even with the new damage deck. Ysanne Isard ends up doing more damage, but Kylo Ren has the pilot skill advantage. Target lock's extra damage and Ysanne Isard's free evade eventually outstrips the two missed rounds of shooting and the lower pilot skill. Using the original damage deck widens the gap to give the Ysanne Isard Decimator a comfortable lead.

Other Considerations

With this in mind, there's a few things missing from this analysis which helps Kylo Ren:
  1. Kylo Ren defends your whole list while Ysanne Isard only defends the Decimator.
  2. Kylo Ren is front-loaded while Ysanne Isard needs time to take effect. In general, the first rounds of shooting are often more influential. In this duel, the Kylo Ren Decimator can deal a crippling critical hit earlier.
  3. Kylo Ren is stronger against ships with very strong attacks (e.g. the Ghost). You avoid a stronger attack, and Ysanne Isard loses value when the Decimator dies faster.
  4. Kylo Ren goes through shields, so it's stronger against regeneration and evasive ships with shields.
  5. The Kylo Ren Decimator could take target lock every round and only use the Kylo Ren ability when he keeps the target lock from the previous round (31% chance of not needing it). I think this improves his damage output slightly. It might be enough to nudge him ahead, but it seems contrived and negates the front-loaded benefit of Kylo Ren.
And here's a few points against Kylo Ren:
  1. You can also boost and use Ysanne Isard, but Kylo Ren takes your action. Boosting can often prevent a shot just like Blinded Pilot would.
  2. The Blinded Pilot critical hit (new deck) is wasted if the enemy ship didn't have a shot this round.
  3. You have to shoot the ship with the strong attack to make use of Kylo Ren. For example, you may want to kill a Lambda Shuttle with Emperor Palpatine first, but need to shoot and hit Countess Ryad to defend against her attack.
  4. Kylo Ren is much worse at Range 3 where Chiraneau's ability doesn't work. You only have a 37.5% chance of rolling at least one natural critical result.
  5. The chance of at least one critical result at range 2 is 77% with Chiraneau's ability. Kylo Ren won't work about 1 in 4 times even with no green dice. Granted, the condition does stick around until used.

Conclusions

Overall, this analysis shows Kylo Ren crew is roughly comparable to other options around his point cost. Kylo Ren is 1 point cheaper and comes out roughly even with Ysanne Isard. That feels OK since Ysanne Isard isn't a top-tier upgrade. Kylo Ren looks strong, but I'm not ready to say he's overpowered until the tournament results come in. I'm not even ready to say he'll drive archetypes out of the meta.

There's two general lessons to draw from this. First, the default actions are very strong, and most ships can only take 1 action per round. It takes a truly powerful ability to be worthwhile over the "boring" actions you already have like focus and target lock. Engine Upgrade on big ships with turrets is one example. Black Market Slicer Tools is another.

Second, when you can, you should run the math before saying something's too strong. The X-Wing Probability Calculator makes it easy to run the numbers and see exactly how strong a ship/upgrade is. Or don't run the numbers, post on reddit, and give me more material for this blog :).