Friday, January 31, 2020

Beginner's Guide to Not Jousting

I've said in the past that flying arc-dodgers is not harder than flying jousters at the tournament level, but there's an initial learning curve on how to avoid jousting.

Here's a basic idea you can try to avoid jousting: Don't put your ships in the same place.


In this case, "same place" means "area covered by the same firing arc(s)". In other words, flank with your ships.

This is not a flank:



This is a flank:


The important thing is where your ships are during the engagement, not where they are deployed. You can start your ace ships anywhere as long as they are spread out before the engagement. Similarly, don't get baited by spreading your ships during deployment but have all your ships end up in the same place by the time the shooting starts.

Of course, things get more difficult if enemy ships have multiple arcs, but this general concept still applies.

There are several reasons to spread out your ships. First, it's easier to arc-dodge and avoid shots with one ship than it is with three ships. When your ships are in the same place, their escape routes may end up getting blocked off by your own ships.

Second, it's hard to arc-dodge and get shots at the same time. Even when all your aces successfully arc-dodge, you may not have gained anything. Flanking means the ships that don't arc-dodge get free shots.

Third, it forces your opponent to make decisions and thus gives them more chances to make mistakes. If all your ships are in one place, your opponent's choices are obvious (turn towards all of your ships). When they have to decide which of three ships to turn toward, they might make the wrong choice and give you a significant advantage.

There's an added benefit of flanking for all ships, even ships that aren't aces. When ships are flying head-on at each other, they usually have to K-Turn to keep their guns on target. Flanking ships can keep guns on target without turning around. This means flanking is especially beneficial for ships that are often stressed and can't K-Turn (e.g. Soontir Fel, Braylen Stramm) or ships that don't have a K-Turn (e.g. the Upsilon Shuttle).

As such, flanking is also important if your list has both a jousting block and a flanker or arc-dodger, or if you only have ships with average or below-average maneuverability but you'd lose a straight joust.

Counterplay

For the other side of the matchup, there are a few ways to play against a flanking list. First, you can try to jump on one ship before the others can capitalize. In the best case scenario, you can kill or cripple one ship for free. If you play it especially well, you may have time to regroup before your opponent can punish even if you don't catch or cripple the target.

Second, you can try to herd your opponent's ships together. You can threaten to jump on a ship and force it to turn into its allies. Once your opponents ships are in the same place, you'll have an easier time catching them.

Sometimes, you can split your firing arcs. This threatens your opponent with at least some damage and may make them play more cautiously with spending tokens on offense. Don't do this if the enemy ships have strong defenses that require focus fire to overcome. This can also leave your ships uncoordinated and in a position to be picked off by the aces.

Finally, you can make sure you catch at least one ship in your arcs, even if you have to give up the flank to the other enemy ships. As long as your ships are shooting, you may still win the damage race. If possible, leave yourself with an option to threaten the flankers with your maneuver the next turn.

There's currently one more strategy against flankers that's potentially problematic for the game: "mobile fortressing". This strategy involves only flying your ships along the board edges, either waiting for your opponent to approach or for a favorable final salvo. It removes one of the flank approaches using the board edge while threatening the other approaches with hard turns and K-Turns. It's often the best strategy if you have a less-maneuverable list. Unfortunately, this strategy could be degenerate since it's pretty easy to execute and has limited options for counterplay. I believe the rules should heavily discourage mobile fortressing for this reason, and judges at various events may already be using their discretion to penalize mobile fortressing.

Wednesday, January 15, 2020

What a close joust vs. aces game looks like: implications for time limits and strategy

When there's an aces vs. jousters matchup, what does an even game look like? This would be a game where both players have roughly equal chances to win until the end.

For this exercise, we can imagine some hypothetical 2-3 ace list (maybe Boba Fenn or Republic Aces) against a hypothetical jousting list (maybe 5 X-Wings).

Suppose after a few rounds, both lists have lost about 80 points of ships. One of the aces and two X-Wings died. Does this even trade of points create an even game state?

Actually, this even trade of points means the jousting list is losing unless the aces are in a bad position.

We know from escalation leagues and epic games that lower point budgets favor aces while higher point budgets favor jousters. With lower point budgets, jousters don't have enough firing arcs to get reliable shots on aces. With higher points budgets, aces die well before they get value for their cost.

Unless the aces are in a bad position, we now have a 120 point vs. 120 point game after this even trade of points. We know this favors aces. The jousters aren't likely to cripple any aces before the aces get another kill or two. At that point, the jousters won't have enough arcs to keep the aces from getting uncontested shots. The jousters may never shoot again and they're going to lose the game.




If an even trade of ships doesn't produce a fair game, then the jousters have to kill more points than they lose to keep the game fair. Even when the jousters are ahead on points, a couple bad turns is all it takes for the jousting list to lose one too many ships and any reasonable path to victory. The jousting list has to continue getting shots, dealing damage, and removing ships. The aces have to look for openings where they can kill enough ships to get reliable uncontested shots the rest of the game.

So, what does this mean?

First, time limits favor jousting lists (or less-maneuverable lists in general), especially since they tend to have a favorable final salvo. The scenarios where the aces get ahead and run to time feel bad, but aces are heavily favored when they get ahead on points anyway. On the other hand, the game could end in an even state where the jousting list is ahead on points. Jousting lists can even win in a position where the aces are in a commanding position as there aren't enough ships left on the board to pin them down.

Second, in terms of game strategy, ace lists probably want to play the opening quickly. If they don't get a large advantage out of the opening, they want the extra time to outmaneuver their opponents and recover from their points deficit. Jousting lists may want to delay the engagement so ace lists get fewer opportunities to exploit their maneuverability later in the game.

Finally, aces are probably more forgiving to fly than jousting lists. An ace list that gets behind can still exploit its maneuverability to look for uncontested shots and a way back into the game. A jousting list that gets behind may not even be able to shoot the rest of the game. At some point, they may even lose while exchanging fire and they usually don't have the maneuverability to get the uncontested shots they would need to recover.

Saturday, January 11, 2020

Quick Hyperspace Takes on the Jan 2020 Points

Along with the massive changes to Hyperspace legality, the Jan 2020 points adjustment makes huge changes to the Hyperspace meta. In this article, I review the best Hyperspace-legal pilots in each faction and discuss my overall thoughts on each faction as a whole. For those more interested in Extended, I'll also list what I think are the best non-Hyperspace-legal pilots for each faction.

Overall, the Jan 2020 points adjustment solidifies the bar for efficiency set by the generic Kihraxz in the previous adjustment. Previously-efficient ships and ships which received further buffs to meet that standard are strong options in this new meta. Generics that were previously reasonable but didn't receive further buffs have fallen behind.

Tier list (number of good options; NOT strength of strongest lists!; NOT ordered within tiers):
A-Tier: Scum
B-Tier: Resistance, First Order, Republic
C-Tier: Rebels, Separatists
D-Tier: Empire

Rebels

Strong pilots: 
  • Leia Organa (Modified YT-1300)
  • Luke Skywalker (T-65 X-Wing)
  • I2 and I3 T-65 X-Wings
  • I1 A-Wing
Rebels don't seem to have many great options in Hyperspace (or in Extended?). Leia's probably their best ship. Unfortunately, I'm not sold on their other options. Neither Y-Wings nor B-Wings kept up with the new efficiency standard. Stabilized S-Foils is great on Ten Numb and gives him double-modded shots without any other upgrades, but the order of the BR->lock linked action and the extra cost mean he doesn't quite keep up with the newly-discounted options. For the rest of the B-Wings, chasing the cannon double-tap seems to be too expensive to be worthwhile.

Even worse for Rebel players, the Resistance may pull off the efficient X-Wings and A-Wings lists even better. Still, Rebels have an efficient YT-1300 and can put more ships on the table compared to the Resistance.

Most missed non-Hyperspace options: I2 E-Wing, Leia Organa crew and efficient crew carriers, force crew (e.g. Kanan Jarrus, Luke Skywalker)

Empire

Strong pilots: 
  • "Duchess" (TIE Striker)
  • I1 TIE Strikers
  • Major Vermeil (TIE Reaper) with Seventh Sister crew
  • Maybe I2 TIE Advanced x1
The Empire has a plethora of the best ships in the game. Admiral Sloane backed by the newly-discounted generic TIE Interceptors looks hard to beat. I3 generic TIE Phantoms were really strong and got a discount. Previously-strong pilots like the Inquisitor, Grand Inquisitor, Darth Vader, Soontir Fel, Whisper, and Rear Admiral Chiraneau all stayed in place while other ships got buffed, but these should still be good options. Even generic TIE Aggressors and TIE Bombers may be strong now.

Comically, none of these made it into Hyperspace. Even the ones that did (e.g. Darth Vader, Rear Admiral Chiraneau) are missing vital upgrades that make them work (e.g. Afterburners, Hate, Darth Vader crew, Moff Jerjerrod, Proximity Mines).

I think the best attempt with Hyperspace Empire might be to spam TIE Strikers. Or, maybe try to make magic happen with the I2 TIE Advanced x1; it keeps getting discounts, and at some point it's got to be a good value despite its Lock requirement drawbacks! "Duchess" and Major Vermeil may be OK named options. Darth Vader still has Passive Sensors, but there are much fewer I6 arc-dodgers that the build counters.

Most missed non-Hyperspace options: Admiral Sloane, I3 TIE Phantom, I1 and I4 TIE Interceptors, Afterburners, Darth Vader crew, Moff Jerjerrod, etc.

Scum

Strong pilots:
  • Dengar (JumpMaster 5000)
  • Nom Lumb (JumpMaster 5000)
  • I1 generic Fang Fighter
  • Sunny Bounder, Laetin A'shera, I2 and I3 M3-A Interceptor
  • I2 and I3 Mining Guild TIEs
  • Boba Fett (Firespray)
  • Fenn Rau (Fang Fighter)
Oh, how the turns table. Scum keeps its proven options like Boba Fenn and Quad Fangs and builds on them in several ways. It's not a meme, I really think the buffs to Dengar finally make him an efficient option, which gives Scum two good I6 options in Hyperspace. Consider Expert Handling or Contraband Cybernetics, be very careful about taking stress, and play him a few times to get used to his asymmetric dial.

Despite leaving their best low-initiative options in Extended, Hyperspace Scum still has good swarm, filler, and workhorse options. Nom Lumb doesn't give up unanswered shots and a cannon (Autoblaster or Ion) limits most of the drawbacks of his ability. Most of their generics provide good value for their points, including the I1 Fang Fighter, generic M3-A Interceptors, and generic Mining Guild TIEs. Some of the named M3-A Interceptors including Sunny Bounder and Laetin A'shera can also be efficient options.

Most missed non-Hyperspace options: Asajj Ventress and I2 Shadowcasters, I3 Kimogila

Resistance

Strong pilots:
  • Tallissan Lintra (RZ-2 A-Wing)
  • Zizi Tlo (RZ-2 A-Wing)
  • I2 and I3 T-70 X-Wings
  • I2 Fireball
  • Poe Dameron (T-70 X-Wing)
  • maybe all other RZ-2 A-Wings
Resistance has extremely efficient X-Wing and A-Wing options, and not much beyond that. Tallissan is still extremely efficient and Zizi joins her as another great A-Wing pilot. I've never been sold on the other A-Wing pilots, but Resistance players like them so they may still be fine. On the other hand, it may be worth trying out the generic T-70 options now that they've received large discounts. Finally, Poe remains as an I6 option that can double-reposition.

The generic Fireballs look reasonably efficient. Compared to the hyper-efficient I2 Torrent, they cost an extra point and their K-Turn options aren't as strong. Still, their SLAM makes them unpredictable blockers and the option to attack after a SLAM is welcome. They're worse than the generic X-Wings, but they may be a reasonable filler. Kazuda looks too expensive to be efficient, even with R5 Astromech to make his ability more reliable. At this time, the other Fireball pilots have not yet been spoiled.

Most missed non-Hyperspace options: Rey (Scavenged YT-1300), Finn (Resistance Transport Pod), Chewbacca (Scavenged YT-1300)

First Order

Strong pilots:
  • All TIE/fo Fighter pilots except "Static", "Midnight", and maybe the I4 generic and Commander Malarus
  • All TIE/vn Silencer pilots except maybe "Blackout" ("Avenger" needs a 4+ ship list)
  • I2 TIE/sf Fighter (with or without Special Forces Gunner)
  • Major Vonreg (TIE/ba Interceptor)
First Order continues to have lots of efficient options. You can build a pretty reasonable list by just taking the above ships with their logical upgrades until you fill up 200 points. Unfortunately, most of the strong First Order options only have 2-dice attacks which are especially weak when facing 3-agility ships.  Beyond their low-initiative options, First Order are one of the few factions in Hyperspace with multiple high-initiative pilots that can double-reposition. Kylo is still very strong. Even though Major Vonreg doesn't seem very efficient, an I6 ship that can double-reposition with good offense can always win games. Finally, "Rush" starts off as an inefficient I2 but he becomes wildly efficient if his ability ever triggers.

Outside of "Rush" and Major Vonreg (and even with Vonreg), I'm not sold on the new First Order options. The TIE/ba Interceptor looks great at first glance, but its Fine-Tuned Thrusters ship ability seems hard to use. Losing red or green dice to double-reposition can be more punishing than taking stress or losing a force, while not having the boost -> barrel roll option limits their ability to arc-dodge. Their pilots don't seem too strong at their current prices. The new TIE/sf options, Captain Phasma and Lieutenant LeHuse, have cute sharing abilities that both seem overpriced and impractical. Usually, 1 point per initiative (2 for I6) is fair for chassis with one reposition; Phasma pays 4 points and LeHuse 3 for their respective abilities (compare LeHuse to Synchronized Console, for example). Finally, the regen option Deuterium Power Cells may be good on Major Vonreg, but otherwise it's expensive and has a punishing timing.

The new Proud Tradition talent compares roughly with Contraband Cybernetics at 2 points and seems OK. It's probably best-used on the TIE/sf Fighter with Special Forces Gunner, and unfortunately the ones with talent slots don't seem that strong. The TIE/sf with Gunner has 3 attack to take advantage of the dice mod, does red maneuvers reasonably often, and has Lock and Evade as backup actions. For similar reasons, it may also be good on the TIE/ba Interceptor. For an additional 5 points, ships can take Pattern Analyzer (edit: only in Extended, oops!) to get double mods after fully executing a red maneuver until Proud Tradition gets flipped.

Most missed non-Hyperspace options: "Quickdraw" (TIE/sf Fighter)

Republic

Strong pilots:
  • All ARC-170 except "Odd Ball"; 
  • Barriss Offee with CLT
  • Ahsoka Tano with CLT
  • Obi-Wan Kenobi with CLT
  • Plo Koon with CLT
Can a faction thrive in Hyperspace with just the CLT Jedi and the ARC-170? All of these options are strong and the CLT Jedi can be fun to fly. Barriss Offee is probably cheap enough at just 41 points to overcome her limitations, and you can easily fly a 4-Jedi list with many points to spare. Alternatively, you can fly a list entirely of ARCs or mix and match them with the Jedi. The I3 generic ARCs are now nearly as efficient as their I2 counterparts, and I3 will have value in a format with lots of strong low-initiative ships. "Jag" and "Wolffe" are also reasonable options (sorry "Odd Ball").

Ric Olie is still around, but I think he's best with regen and that build took a 6.5% cost increase. Broadside is also around, but I'm not sold on him.

Most missed non-Hyperspace options: Delta 7-B, I2 V-19 Torrent and ARC-170

Separatists

Strong pilots:
  • Bombardment Drone with Cluster Mines and Delayed Fuses
  • DBS-404
  • I1 Generic Hyena-Class Droid Bombers
  • Count Dooku
  • I1 and I3 generic Vulture Droids (with Discord Missiles)
Separatists lost a lot of linchpin options with the Hyperspace limits and largely stood in place while everyone else stepped forward. Vulture Droids are still around, but they have to compete against newly-buffed options and they lost all but one of their swarm buffers. Count Dooku with Heightened Perception and Tractor Beam is the only remaining option. The Dooku Vulture Swarm is a very strong list that should still be competitive, but other good Hyperspace Separatist options are harder to find.

The Separatists do have some sleeper hits. Bombardment Droids with Proximity Mines did well near the end of the June 2019 points cycle. They got a discount, but Cluster Mines may deal less damage while being more expensive and there's a chance they can hose your own ships even with Delayed Fuses. DBS-404 is a meme pilot that may actually be a sleeper strong ship. The generic I1 Hyena-Class Bombers look very efficient. A mix of Vultures and Hyenas may be the stronger option than a swarm with only one or the other.

Most missed non-Hyperspace options: Ensnare, General Grevious (Belbullab-22 Starfighter), Wat Tambor (Belbullab-22 Starfighter)